why futures traders fail: the data vs emotions problem
after talking with thousands of futures traders over the past year, I've noticed one consistent pattern among those who fail:
- they're stubborn
- they trade based on ego
- they never listen to the data, even if it's telling them their strategy isn't going to make them any money.
table of contents
- here are 2 stories that keep me up at night
- what successful futures traders actually do differently
- the three reasons why futures traders fail to ignore data
- the edgeful reports that most people ignore
- the step-by-step approach that actually works
- real examples of futures traders who actually trade with data on their side
- the brutal truth nobody wants to hear
- your choice
- frequently asked why futures traders fail questions
here are 2 stories that keep me up at night
I've had two calls recently that really drove this home for me about why futures traders fail.
the first was with a guy who had lost multiple 6 figures over the past 2 years. he kept saying "this is my way of trading... I've been doing this for years. I'm not going to change it now..."
and unfortunately, a couple of months later, he couldn't make his mortgage payments anymore. I wish I was kidding.
the worst part is — the whole thing was 100% avoidable. I tried showing him reports on edgeful that would have been instantly useful for him, and he still decided it wasn't worth switching things up and listening to the data.
I hate conversations like this... and then there was another guy:
the second call was with someone who quit his job to trade futures full-time, which initially sounded amazing. but he only traded zero-day expiration (0DTE) SPX options — literally the riskiest possible approach if you don't have data behind you.
I showed him what the stats said, explained to him how he could drastically improve his system by using a couple of our reports, and even gave him the specific customizations and subreports I would use if I was going to trade his system.
his response? "no, no, no... I'm going to continue doing what I'm doing."
three months later, both had the same outcome: blown accounts, and were back to their day jobs.
these stories perfectly illustrate why futures traders fail - they choose ego over statistical evidence.
what successful futures traders actually do differently
the positive side of these two stories is that there's another type of futures trader out there — likely you, if you're reading this stay sharp — the futures traders who realize that you actually can't trade without data.
these are the characteristics of those who avoid why futures traders fail:
- they watch our onboarding videos, and are willing to learn
- once they understand the data, they listen to it
- they don't fight the probabilities
- they start with one report and master it
- they track results and adjust accordingly
- they're not afraid to pivot when the data goes against them
just check out KTrade, who has been killing it with our algos and data:
and KTrade isn't some special instance — he's just done all of the steps above. it may seem boring to watch videos and trade unemotionally, but it's literally the easiest way to start making money consistently as a futures trader.
the three reasons why futures traders fail to ignore data
I think there are 3 main reasons traders don't listen to data:
1. ego and overconfidence
there's way too much ego in the trading space. futures traders get attached to a certain strategy or setup that eventually stops working, and that attachment becomes a big reason why futures traders fail. they think they can "feel" the market, which is never a reliable strategy long-term.
2. trading with data seems complex
trading with data is the opposite: it makes trading almost too simple.
- if you knew today's gap had a 75% chance of filling, would you take that trade? I would.
- if gaps over 1.5% on ES go unfilled 85% of the time in the last 2 years, would you sit out? I definitely would.
here's what's actually complex and explains why futures traders fail:
- following a bunch of people on social media with different opinions
- adding 5-10 indicators to your charts that all give conflicting signals
- trying to trade multiple strategies at once
you don't need opinions or tons of indicators on your charts. just use the data.
3. impatience
futures traders want the "holy grail" strategy that works immediately. they'll spend hours scrolling TikTok and YouTube looking for trading "secrets" but won't watch a 10-minute tutorial on how our reports actually work.
they want instant results without building a system. successful futures traders understand it's about developing a process over time — not finding some magic strategy that prints money from day one.
the edgeful reports that most people ignore
here's what's crazy... we literally give you everything you need to be successful.
using the edgeful reports, you can instantly identify stats on setups like the:
- initial balance
- previous day's range
- ORB, gap fill, or opening candle continuation...
it's incredibly difficult to calculate the probabilities of each setup by hand (even if you're an excel wizard) which is why we do it for you.
literally all you have to do is put in a little work to understand what the data is telling you, and how to apply it to your futures trading style.
we even have algos that do everything except press buy/sell.
we're currently in beta for the automation of the full trade execution for the algos, so on August 11th, you won't even have to click buy and sell anymore. with the fully functional automation, you'll be able to integrate directly into your broker, and the algo will take care of everything.
- entries
- exits
- take profits
- position sizing
- backtesting
I can't explain how huge this is for edgeful futures traders — literally everything done for you — there's no need to be stubborn, no need to trade without data anymore.
and if you really think your strategy can be profitable and can articulate the clear inputs, we'll build the report for you so you can use data instead of your gut feel or emotion.
before I get into the actual steps you can take to become a profitable futures trader, I want to highlight one more topic:
our consecutive win/loss probabilities graphic below, based on win rate.
here's what the graphic above is visualizing:
let's say you have a futures strategy with 50% win rate:
- 100% chance you'll go on a 4 trade losing streak in the next 100 trades
- 78% chance you'll go on a 6 trade losing streak in the next 100 trades
are you going to have the confidence to sit through a drawdown like this if you don't have data backing your strategy? probably not.
this is where data not only supports your futures trading execution, but also your psychology.
more data → less irrational thoughts → less emotion to hijack your trading → better execution long term.
for more detailed analysis on this topic, check out our comprehensive guide on the data behind losing streaks in trading.
the step-by-step approach that actually works
if you want to stop being one of those futures traders who fail by ignoring data, here's exactly what you need to do:
- pick one report to master first - don't try to use everything at once
- watch the full report tutorial - don't skip parts, don't put it on 2x speed
- paper trade it a couple of times to understand it - see how it performs without risking money
- then trade with real money, small position size - start small, build confidence
- build size as you build confidence in execution - let success breed success
- track data-driven trades vs. emotion-driven trades - you'll see the difference immediately
- gradually add multiple reports - layer complexity slowly
for comprehensive information about algorithmic approaches that eliminate many reasons why futures traders fail, read our detailed guide on algo trading strategies.
real examples of futures traders who actually trade with data on their side
let me share a couple of examples from our Discord:
marie works night shifts but trusts the data enough to set orders and then go to bed (using the ORB strategy). she doesn't fight it, doesn't override it with emotions. just follows what the probabilities tell her.
brdavis passed his 50k funded challenge in just 2 days using our IB algo. he didn't try to outsmart or complicate the strategy — he let the data do the work.
contrast that with the futures traders who fail because they refused to listen to the same data. same platform. same reports. same opportunities.
the only difference? one group of futures traders listened to data. the other group listened to their ego.
the brutal truth futures trader wants to hear
if you're not listening to data, you're just gambling. you might get lucky for a while, but eventually, the probabilities will catch up with you.
I've seen it happen hundreds of times. the futures trader who thinks they're smarter than the market. the futures trader who ignores the data because "this time is different." the futures trader who refuses to adjust their approach when the stats clearly show it's not working.
these futures traders always end up the same way — with blown accounts.
for additional insights on managing futures trading psychology and risk, check out our 9 rules to prevent blown accounts.
your choice
you have two choices:
choice 1: keep trading based on emotions, gut feelings, and ego. keep fighting the data. keep making the same mistakes. and keep getting the same results.
choice 2: start listening to what the data is telling you. pick one report. learn it completely. use it consistently. track your results.
if you're ready to make choice 2, pick one edgeful report this week and commit to it for the next two weeks. really learn it. really use it. I think you'll be surprised by the results.
and if you're already using our reports consistently and following the data, keep doing what you're doing. you're in the minority, and that's exactly where you want to be.
the data is there. the tools are there.
the question is: are you going to listen?
frequently asked questions: why futures traders fail
what is the main reason why futures traders fail?
the primary reason why futures traders fail is their refusal to use data driven futures trading approaches. instead of following statistical evidence and probability-based strategies, failing futures traders rely on emotions, gut feelings, and ego-driven decisions. our analysis shows that futures traders who fail consistently ignore available data and statistical tools that could make them profitable.
which indicators are best for futures traders to avoid failure?
while many futures traders never make it by overcomplicating their approach with too many indicators, the most effective approach is actually data-driven probability analysis rather than traditional indicators. however, if you're looking for specific technical indicators, check out our comprehensive guide on the top TradingView indicators for futures trading. the key is using data to validate any indicator signals rather than relying on indicators alone.
how can data driven futures trading prevent failure?
data driven futures trading prevents failure by removing emotional decision-making and providing statistical foundation for every trade. instead of guessing market direction, data-driven futures traders know that specific setups have quantifiable probabilities of success. for example, knowing that today's gap has a 75% chance of filling based on historical data eliminates the guesswork that causes most futures traders to fail. this approach builds confidence and consistency that emotional trading simply cannot provide.
what percentage of futures traders actually succeed?
while commonly cited statistics suggest that 80-90% of futures traders fail, our data shows that futures traders who consistently use probability-based analysis and data-driven strategies have significantly higher success rates. the key difference is that successful futures traders base their decisions on statistical evidence rather than emotions or opinions. they understand market probabilities, manage risk based on data, and avoid the psychological pitfalls that cause most futures traders to fail.
