adapting to changing market conditions: how to evolve your edgeful strategy
your strategy isn't broken — the market has just changed
this week, we're tackling a critical challenge every trader faces: when it feels like you can’t do anything right because your strategy and setups just aren’t working anymore.
this was my reality in december of ‘24… the gap fill just wasn’t working — I was taking loss after loss, seeing my account balance drop, and wondering if I had completely lost my edge.
the truth? I was being stubborn. I wasn’t recognizing that the market conditions had changed, and I hadn’t adapted. once I started looking at the data and using customizations inside edgeful, everything shifted — and I’m going to walk you through exactly how I adjusted.
using edgeful to adapt and stay profitable in any market environment
strategies don’t work forever. and if you’re not adapting to changing market conditions, your edge will disappear — fast.
take the opening range breakout (orb) double break setup for example:
- Q1 2024: double breaks happened 81% of the time on ES
compare that with Q4 of 2024:
- q4 2024: that dropped to 50%
a massive drop… in the same year. without adapting, this strategy would’ve cost you big.
but that’s why you’re here — to learn how to adjust and trade based on what the market is actually doing, not what it used to do.
step 1: use the date range feature
edgeful’s date range comparison tool is the most underused weapon on the platform.
use it to compare your favorite strategy’s edge across:
- 1-year
- 6-month
- 3-month
this tells you if the data is improving or deteriorating — and if it's the latter, it’s time to start adapting to changing market conditions.
pro tip: a 60%+ probability is usually a good floor. anything below that? probably not worth trading consistently.
step 2: customize reports to fit changing setups
say your go-to report is underperforming. you don't have to panic or throw your strategy out the window — just customize it.
example: the gap fill report.
- by default, it uses a 100% fill, which means price must return all the way to the prior session’s close
and over the last 3 months:
- gap ups filled 59%
- gap downs filled 57%
- both below the 60% benchmark
not ideal…
so what can you do?
change the fill criteria using our customizations drop down on the left sidebar. here's what you'll see:
you'll see the new stats are:
- gap ups fill 74%
- gap downs fill 76%
switching the fill requirements to 50% (half gaps) like we’ve done above makes the setup much easier to confidently trade because the stats are significantly better.
boom — now you’ve got a valid, tradable setup again. that's the power of adapting to changing market conditions in real time using edgeful’s customizations.
here's a great example as to how you can keep up with changing markets following the exact criteria I laid out above:
as you can see, price reached the 50% fill line (the blue line on the screenshot above – the half way point between the previous session’s close and today’s open) but never the 100% (all the way back to the previous session’s closing price).
it makes sense that price didn’t make it all the way up to the 100% fill level (previous session’s close) because there’s been a shift in the market environment that you can clearly see from the report results (the ones below 60% – they’re not great). these types of shifts require us to change our approach if we want to continue to make money…
I know, I know, you’re already thinking “but André, if my profit target has gone from 100% of a gap fill to 50% of a gap fill, doesn’t that mean my profits are cut in half as well?” for sure, but you have to recognize that in the current market, 100% fills just aren’t happening that often – which means your targets aren’t getting hit anyways.
so if you want to still use the same gap strategy and actually make money, the market’s telling you that you have to adapt. the data says that using half gaps as your new profit target is one easy way to do this. this brings us to the last part of how to adapt to keeping up with changing markets. which is position sizing:
step 3: adjust your position sizing to match new conditions
you’ve now got a more accurate target (50% gap fill instead of 100%).
but yes — this also means you might make less per trade. still, consistent smaller wins are better than big losses chasing targets that don't make any sense in the current environment.
as your win rate improves using data-adapted strategies, you can gradually size up with more confidence.
this kind of flexibility is what keeps your account growing while the market evolves.
bonus: adapting the orb strategy with edgeful customizations
let's say you're not a gap fill trader, but you are an ORB trader... and you have seen the data change over the last couple of months. what can you do?
again — use edgeful's customization feature.
edgeful’s report customizations let you fine-tune every aspect of the setup:
- change the timeframe (from 5-min to 1-hour)
- toggle breakout type (by wick or by candle close)
- set double break criteria (same candle vs. throughout day)
this is how you transform a one-size-fits-all setup into something completely your own — and optimized for current market behavior.
putting it all together: 5 steps to adapt your edgeful strategy
ready to start adapting to changing market conditions? follow these steps:
- open your edgeful dashboard and bookmark your top reports
- use the date range tool (1y, 6mo, 3mo) to track strategy performance
- identify any drop-offs in probability — and run report customizations
- adjust your targets (e.g. 100% to 50%) if the data shows reduced effectiveness
- recalibrate position sizing to reflect the new win rate and volatility
remember — the traders who end up being profitable in every market type aren't the ones with the perfect strategy. they're the ones who can adapt quickly when their strategy stops working.
edgeful gives you the tools to do exactly that.
